What I’ve learned this World Cup is that the Germans are fine hosts even when they are riding around Berlin all night honking their horns after a win, I can indeed have a love/hate relationship with the Italians, and that predictions are a fool’s game.

That said, I do envisage a tight, entertaining match today that ends up 2-0 to the Italians. Their defense is just too organized and talented. France will almost certainly play a 4-2-3-1 which has left Zinedine Zidane as the sole playmaker during the tournament. Italy will make quick work of this and stifle any service to French striker Thierry Henry.

But the French have a fine defense themselves and will not give the newly attacking Italians much room to work. But the one weak link in the French team, their goalkeeper Fabien Barthe,z will not be able to make the extraordinary save and one or two of the Italian chances are sure to go in.

So, that’s it, thankfully my final World Cup prediction, Italy to win 2-0 in a great match (which definitely means France will win 1-0).

Through 6 matches of the World Cup finals, neither France nor Italy have lost a match, with the Italians drawing once against the US and the French drawing Switzerland and South Korea. One could argue that Italy have had the slightly more difficult road to the Finals, but French defeats of Brazil and Spain have certainly impressed.

The Italians have not conceded a goal after the 30th minute and that was an own-goal! The fact that their already stifling defense actually gets stronger as the match goes on will strike fear in French hearts. But France have scored 7 of their 8 goals after the 30th minute, which may mean the slow starters have been able to adjust to their opponents.

Italy scores 7 of their 11 goals from outside the penalty area, but France have yet to concede from outside the box. Claude Makelele and Patrick Viera in support of the French back four have been outstanding during the Finals, and if Viera is on-form, they will be a good test for the Azzuri.

Curiously, Italian keeper Gianluigi Buffon is amongst the leaders in saves made during the World Cup. Whether this is up to his skill or a sign of holes in the Italian defense is up for discussion.

Despite his up and down form, Italy’s Francisco Totti leads all players in assists and credit must be given to the Italians attacking nature, the lack of which has been so derided in the past. But France’s Thierry Henry has the most shots on goal during the tournament despite being starved of service early on.

What do these numbers mean? A tight match with few opportunities because of stifling defenses or a wide-open Final with loads of chances, ending with a late winner? Hope for the latter.

During the group stages, the French team seemed without direction and cohesion and looked certain to have a poor tournament. After literally escaping to the knockout rounds they put in two remarkable performances against Spain and Brazil to reach the semi-fiinals.

Against Portugal, they were not the team we saw in the past two matches and will need to turn it around once again to defeat Italy.

Portugal were poor competition and the Azzuri will be far stronger at every position and the French will need to do more than defend for 90 minutes.

Midfielders Patrick Viera and Claude Makelele were effective against Portugal, but they only ventured forward for corners. Their plan was to stay directly in front of the back four and it worked, but it worked against a team that had literally no threat in the striker position. Pauleta was dire as a center forward and it is amazing that he is the best at that position in all of Portugal.

Italy have three strikers who are in a different class than Pauleta and will take advantage of any mistakes the French make.

France played more of a 4-2-3-1 formation than a 4-5-1 and Thierry Henry was isolated up front throughout the match and wingers Franck Ribery and Florent Malouda did not have the quality to make the perfect crosses that were needed. Even Zidane, often double-teamed, was often out of options and ideas when the 6 or 7 Portugese defenseman were marking just the four French attackers.

They will have to be better against a stronger Italian defense.

An alternative for France would be to play a 4-4-2 but with striker Louis Saha suspended, the options for coach Raymond Domanech are limited. Once again, Zidane and Viera (and Ribery and Malouda) will have to play the game of their lives, this time to lift the cup.

Going by past results, it’s difficult to know how Portugal will do against France today. The Portugese didn’t excite or impress during the group stages, but still managed three comfortable wins. They defeated a talented, attacking Holland squad but it was really more of a street brawl than a proper football match, outside of that wonderful goal from Maniche. And finally, they sent home an England team that underwhelmed, but they were playing without two suspended starters in midfield in Deco and Costinha.

The two will be back for the semifinal and this should worry the French. When Zinedine Zidane is in form, France follows suit. But when he is looking like the old man who is about to retire, as he did in the first part of the tournament, Les Bleus have problems. Viera, Ribery, and Malouda have been very strong in midfield, but can they dictate a match like Zidane does. What happens if one of the Portugese midfielders cancels out Zidane and the French lose their playmaker?

The key will be Viera. He may need to play the match of his life, both stopping Deco, and then providing enough offensive support to keep the French attack fluid. Both teams will play a 4-5-1, which means a very crowded midfield. For France to win, they will have to be better at setting Thierry Henry free. And it might mean David Trezeguet or Louis Saha coming on late for more options up front.

Another factor may be that Zidane, Ribery, Thuram, and Willy Sagnol are all on yellow cards. How will they balance the need to get stuck in against the very tough Portugese with the desire to potentially not miss the final?

Despite being coached by the great Felipe Scolari, despite the fact that Ronaldo and Figo will keep the French very, very busy and stretched in the midfield, and despite the fact that they’ve only conceded one goal the entire tournament, I cannot see Portugal in the World Cup Final (which almost certainly means they’ll be there).

France 1 Portugal 0

Injury Update: It seems both Christian Ronaldo and Luis Figo have injuries and trained separately from the Portugese team on Tuesday. Scolari says that Ronaldo has a better chance of recovering but has not ruled either of them out. It’s the World Cup semifinal?.they’ll be there.

The most intriguing aspect to today’s semi-final between Italy and Germany is the fact that there is no way to predict what will happen, as we have no idea which Germany or Italy will show up.

For Italy, will it be the goal scorers who pressed forward and ran riot over the sorry Ukrainians, or the team that rode their luck through 90 minutes against Australia.

And which Germany team will walk out tonight in Dortmund? Will it be the brave and solid Germans who have steadily and consistently impressed throughout this tournament or will they be the team that looked completely lost and overwhelmed during the first half hour against Germany.

Both teams have injuries that may not make a difference. Italy will be missing Alberto Nesta, one of the worlds great defenders, but have ample replacements in Marco Matterazi and Andrea Barzagli.

German midfielder Torsten Frings is suspended for the semi-final after an altercation with Argentina’s Julio Cruz. Tim Borowski, who earlier in the tournament substituted for Michel Ballack, is likely to come into the side. He is an energetic player who is also a serious scoring threat. The problem for Germany comes if either he or Ballack are hurt.

On paper, there is very little between these two teams. Both have world class goalkeepers. Both have strikers who are currently very much in form. Both have midfields that can control the game, and organized, strong defenses. They deciding factors may be the fact that Germany will be playing on their home soil and Ballack will be working extra hard to play in a final, as he missed out due to suspension in 2002.

Germany to win 2-1?

I’m struggling to remember such a turnaround in public perception regarding a player as that of the English footballing fans’ aboutface over Owen Hargreaves. Booed on and off the pitch in pre-tournament games, derided and ridiculed in the press and pubs up and down England before a ball had been kicked and even the odd comment that he wasn’t really English anyway.

Funny how it had taken a complete reversal by the time Cristiano Ronaldo and his Portuguese chums began to celebrate their penalty shootout victory and Owen Hargreaves tears were seen as actually being deserved. Frank Lampard, David Beckham and Rio Ferdinand had no right to cry over the spilt milk they had helped cause. Their ineffective, uninterested outlook on the pitch was in complete contrast to that of the curly haired midfield destroyer so despised by the England faithful and yet it was Hargreaves’ all action performance against Portugal which earned the applause and respect of the nation.

Covering every blade of grass the Bayern Munich man led by example, sadly an example that bigger name, more fancy dan teammates like Lampard and the disappointing Steven Gerrard, couldn’t follow and in a side bereft of ideas, craft or guile, the guts, hard work and determination of the Canadian won the hearts of England fans and stuck two fingers up at the press who had been all too quick to jump on his back before the tournament started.

Now Hargreaves wants a move to the Premiership and there will be a slightly longer queue to pick him up than there would have been back in May or early June.

- Arsenal - If Real Madrid’s new president Ramon Calderon makes good on his promise to buy Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal will be very light in central midfield.

- Manchester United - Manchester United may well have Michael Carrick’s transfer all wrapped up but he doesn’t offer the bite of Hargreaves and a midfield pairing of these two England internationals could be the base they use to challenge Chelsea next year.

- Chelsea - Don’t be surprised to see the Russians leap in if ony to keep the player from signing for one of the two sides above. The spoilers missed out on Didier Zokora who followed his heart rather than his wallet to Spurs and mightn’t want to risk losing another chance to steal a march on their rivals.

- Liverpool - A central midfield of Steven Gerrard and Xabi Alonso is as good as the Premiership has to offer, no real need barring injury.

- The rest of the Premiership - Everton may sniff, as could West Ham but neither would have the pulling power (or possibly the finances) to snare the Bayern Munich man.

Funny what a difference 120 minutes and tears after scoring in a penalty shootout makes, isn’t it?

Though his team finally showed signs of life in the quarterfinals, England coach Sven Goran Eriksson never quite figured out what to make of the players he had. Can Wayne Rooney play as a lone striker or should he have a partner? Does Peter Crouch’s presence cause the team to forget to play to the feet? How many and which strikers are/were necessary? How can Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard replicate their club form while playing on the same team? Is a not quite healthy Gary Neville preferred to someone else at right back?

These questions and more haunted Erikkson throughout the tournament and he never seemed to answer any of them. Instead he threw the dice before each match, hoping it would all work out.

Wayne Rooney, after recovering from his metatarsal injury, proved he could play as a lone striker, but without anyone ever coming forward properly from the midfield he was often playing against two or three defenders. A partner upfront would have been helpful. Gerrard and Lampard were supposed to alternate playing in the attacking midfielder role, and score plenty of goals in that position for their country, but Lampard’s shooting was awful throughout the tournament and Gerrard seemed lost in his non-Liverpool role. It is certainly time for England to consider playing in a 3-5-2 formation.

Possibly the key pre-tournament decision was, in the end, the decision to bring Theo Walcott instead of a proven striker. Not once did the 17-year-old feature for England, but Erikkson even intimated that he wasn’t ready. After Michael Owen’s ligament damage, that left only two “ready” strikers and not a lot of options. Crouch played very well but never had anyone to pass to once he collected the long balls.

The key in-tournament decision was most certainly Jose Pekerman’s decision to take off Juan Riquelme with Argentina leading 1-0 against Germany. Not only did the South Americans lose their key playmaker and the man who’d had more touches than any other player during the tournament, but the substitution was a clear signal to everyone that the Argentinians would go into a defensive shell and never return. They never looked the same after, and 8 minutes later the Germans scored. Instead of having the shape and resolve to come back from this, Argentina never looked organized and were certain to not threaten again, which they didn’t.

While each quarterfinal of the World Cup certainly has a favorite, a not so far-fetched and even convincing case can be made in each match for the underdog to pull an upset.

ARGENTINA v GERMANY

Its commonly believed that the class of the tournament so far has been Argentina. Their movement and creativity has been a revelation when compared with the negative tactics and bullying by teams like Italy. But a closer look shows that outside of their 6-0 defeat of Serbia & Montenegro, they have not overwhelmed teams. In the first match of the tournament, against Ivory Coast, they played well but just survived a late, tense onslaught by the Africans. And in their Round of 16 match, only a lack of creativity on the part of the Mexicans in the final third throughout the 120 minutes spared the Argentines blushes.

On Friday, they will be coming up against a German team who may be the most consistent of the tournament. They have impressed in each of their 4 matches steadily improving. They could defeat the South Americans as they will go into the match without fear, meaning they will constantly attack and with a greater width and more promising strikers than any team the Argentines have met. The Germans may be slow at times in defense, but if Michael Ballack and Torsten Frings continue their magnificent play in midfield, it may not matter.

Do not be surprised to see the Germans win it late or on penalties.

ITALY v UKRAINE

Italy have only really impressed during their first match against Ghana. Since then, they have been on the fortunate side of several referee calls and poor finishing by their opponents. They could have easily lost to the US and Australia and defeated a depleted Czech Republic team. They have been running on luck throughout the tournament and could fall to the first quality team they face.

Ukraine are probably not that team though they have proved to be resilient after a slow start. They were fortunate to survive Switzerland in the last round, but display an energy that most teams do not have. And the Italians have yet to play against a striker with the quality of Andriy Shevchenko.

Look for the Italians again to get a questionable penalty in injury time.

ENGLAND v PORTUGAL

England are hoping to continue that time honored tradition (think Brazil ‘94 or West Germany ‘90) of teams not playing well, but eventually winning the World Cup. They have yet to look fluid, confident or organized. But with Wayne Rooney finally getting some games under his belt, they may flourish against a Portugese team depleted by the flurry of red and yellow cards received in their match against Holland.

But Portugal will be the first team England will face in the tournament (outside of maybe Sweden) with true world class players at nearly every position, even with the suspensions of Deco and Costinha. They have the creativity, guile, and offensive threat to keep the England midfield from coming forward, cutting off the delivery to Rooney who will be playing as a lone striker.

Based on the evidence so far, if England do not get their act together quickly, Portugal could win by 2 goals.

BRAZIL V FRANCE

Brazil are another team that have improved as the tournament has gone on, but against Ghana in their last match, the Africans definitely had enough shots to score a few goals and the 3-0 score flattered. There were many holes in the Brazilian defense and only poor finishing by the Ghanaians kept the Brazilians in the tournament.

France do have the potential and experience to capitalize on these opportunities. Theirry Henry and Frank Ribery both have a goalscorer’s mentality and can take advantage of the Brazilians ageing and slow defense.

If Zinedine Zidane and Patrick Viera have the games against Brazil that they had against Spain, France could be headed to the semifinals.

The knockout rounds of the World Cup are featuring just one team from Africa and one team from the CONCACAF region, which is basically North and Latin America.

While this is not totally unexpected, it holds completely different meanings for each region.

With their best teams in the deepest groups, it was not out of the realm of possibility that none of the African teams would go through. But Ghana escaped what became the Group of Death and Tunisia, Angola still had chances on the last day advance. And most observers believe the Ivory Coast would have survived any group that didn’t include Argentina and Holland.

What these strong showings mean for Africa is that their future Nations Cup and subsequent World Cup qualifiers will be filled with 8 to 10 countries that can not only survive, but make a mark on the world stage. The competition for spots in international tournaments will only make the current world Cup attendees and the traditional powers like Cameroon, Senegal, and Nigeria even stronger.

On the flip side is the CONCACAF region where only Mexico survived the group stages. The Mexican and American’s high FIFA rankings always flattered and were never taken seriously, but both teams, the supposed class of the region, disappointed (this was written before the brilliant Argentina match) in this tournament, which does not bode well them or the other teams in the region.

Mexico had brief periods where they looked like they belonged in the World Cup but overall they did not perform like a team making their 5th straight finals. They were fortunate against Iran and were absent against Angola (again this was written before the brilliant match against Argentina). The USA only showed up for one of their matches and for much of the tournament did not look like they knew what they were doing on the field.

Trinidad & Tobago and Costa Rica also represent CONCACAF and were never expected to make much noise and didn’t, although the Trinidadians did have an outside chance of surviving their group.

The problem with this region is that the teams are amongst the most lightweight in the world outside of the Oceanic Zone (which Australia has decided to leave). Three of the four teams from the region that made it this year are likely to make it to South Africa in 2010 but will never gain the world experience needed while their only competition are countries like Aruba, Panama, and Haiti. All of the countries in the region need to find a way to develop more world class talent and play more world class competition on a regular basis.

The first two games of the World Cup have had a few surprises, some disappointments, and only two teams (Argentina and Spain) showing true class. Going into the final matches for each group, there are many countries with a chance to advance, and only a few meaningless games.

Group A

Both Ecuador and Germany are both on six points and will be playing to avoid England in the next round. While Germany have two convincing wins, Ecuador’s pacy forwards could take advantage of the host’s defense and pull an upset. Ecuador just need a draw to top the group. Niether Poland nor Costa Rica have a chance of advancing.

Group B

England plays Sweden in a match-up of two teams who have yet to live up to their potential, and are progressing slowly. Much will depend on the fitness of their main strikers, Wayne Rooney for England and Zlatan Ibrahimovic for Sweden. Trinidad and Tobago still have a chance to get to the Round of 16 if England wins and they defeat Paraguay by a few goals. Paraguay have looked awful in their first two matches and could be thinking about the plane ride home. T&T seem inspired and could pull off the miracle. Second place could be decided on goal difference. England will advance in first place with a win or a draw.

Group C

Holland and Argentina are both assured of advancing to the next round and it’s unclear whether the two teams will play to win or will use the match to play some reserve players and rest their starters. Argentina has looked flawless so far and should win regardless of whom they play. Sadly there is no place for the Ivory Coast in the next round but they should have a bright future. Serbia and Montenegro have been one of the biggest disappointments of the finals and they will be happy when it ends.

Group D

One of the worst performances in Mexican history against Angola this past weekend gives the Africans a slight hope of advancing into the next round. If Portugal win, and they should, the Africans could leap over Mexico if goal difference is in their favor. This would be historic for Angola and a national disaster for the North Americans who see themselves as a world power. Iran should be proud of their performances but still do not have the quality to get the results they desire.

Group E

The newly crowned Group of Death sees every team with a decent chance of advancing. Unlikely though it is, Italy can still be knocked out of the tournament so they will be playing to win against the Czech Republic. Italy are through with a draw or win. The Czechs could be through with a draw but really need a win. As they are not the same team without Jan Koller and Milan Baros, an Italian win looks likely. If this happens, then the winner of the Ghana v USA match will go through. The Africans seem most likely to advance although you never know how the Americans will play.

Group F

Brazil has already advanced to the next round and the biggest question for them is whether coach Carlos Parreira is brave enough to start Robinho in the place of the useless (okay that’s a strong word) Ronaldo. Brazil are a different team with Robinho up front and Parreira should be strong enough to make the call. The other three teams in the group still have a chance of qualifying and the possibilities are endless. Japan could benefit from Brazil playing a mostly meaningless game or they could just as easily fall apart as they have been inconsistent and they are playing Brazil. The Australia v Croatia winner likely goes through and you have to think the Socceroos have the edge as coach Guus Hiddink has instilled in them the organization and guile to go deep in the tournament, where Croatia still do not look comfortable in the final third, having yet to score a goal.

Group G

The biggest disappointment of the tournament so far has to be the play of France. To advance they will need to defeat Togo probably by 3 goals to leapfrog Switzerland and/or South Korea. The French will have to do it without Zinedine Zidane who has possibly played his final match for Les Bleus as he is disqualified for yellow card accumulation. This could actually help the French as maybe coach Raymond Domonech will be forced to play a 4-4-2 instead of his previous system, which unsuccessfully isolated striker Thierry Henry. With a partner he can be the proficient goalscorer he is with Arsenal. The winner of South Korea v Switzerland automatically goes through. The Koreans were not supposed to play so well outside the friendly confines of their own home, but have surprised with their speed, fitness, and determination, the same factors that propelled them to the semifinals four years ago.

Group H

Spain has been very impressive in their two wins by a combined total of 7-1. They may rest players in a meaningless match against Saudi Arabia. Tunisia and Ukraine will play in Berlin with the winner moving on. Ukraine are certainly the favorites after recovering from their 4-0 defeat at the hands of Spain to defeat Saudi Arabia by the same score. Ukraine advance with a draw, Tunisia needs a win.